SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Ethiopian ambush on Sudanese army death toll reaches 27

18/12/2020: Radio Dabanga - Ethiopian ambush on Sudanese army death toll reaches 27

 Radio Dabanga report that four members of the Sudanese army were killed in an ambush by Ethiopian armed forces while they were patrolling the area near Jebel Abu Tuyour in al-Gedaref’s al-Fashaga. 

Radio Dabanga sources said that Ethiopian militiamen from neighbouring Amarah region and Ethiopian army troops seized army vehicles and captured Sudanese soldiers.

The Sudanese government has requested Addis Ababa to “stop the violence at the border” and intends to file a complaint about the recent attacks in al-Gedaref at the eastern Africa Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Reuters - Analysis-Spillover from Tigray conflict adds to pressure on Sudan

18/12/2020: Reuters - Analysis-Spillover from Tigray conflict adds to pressure on Sudan, by Khalid Abdelaziz, Ali Mirghani and Nafisa Eltahir

Reuters’ feature piece assesses the impact of Tigray conflict in Ethiopia, with the influx of over 50,000 refugees said to “add to the challenges” facing Sudan – raising the price of basic goods rising as aid agencies struggle to source food, water and healthcare.

Tigrayan refugees in Sudan hold forces from Ethiopia’s Amhara ethnic group responsible for much of the violence they fled. Reuters note that Amhara farmers claim rights to lands in the al-Fashqa plain also claimed by Sudan, and clashes sometimes flare during planting and harvest seasons.

Sudan’s information minister Faisal Mohammed Salih said Amhara forces, which back Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, have expanded their activity, leading to other incidents in long-disputed farmlands near the border where refugees cross.

Sudanese authorities are keen to move the refugees away from the border in fear that Tigrayan forces could use Sudan as a base, although COVID-19 is complicating logistical operations.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Institute for Security Studies - Sudan's transition: what are the chances of success?

18/12/2020: Institute for Security Studies - Sudan's transition: what are the chances of success?, by Shewit Woldemichael

Shewit Woldemichael, researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, identifies the discord among the Forces for Freedom and Change alliance (FFC) as a key challenge in Sudan’s democratic transition.

 Woldemichael notes that Sudan’s current transition bears similarity to the 1964-65 and 1985-86 transitional periods which culminated in military dictatorships, attributing the previous failures to the “lack of a common vision for Sudan among political elites,” which resulted in alliances “mired in rivalry [which] undermines the unity and strength of civilian actors.”

 Thus, Woldemichael’s calls for the transitional government to manage public expectations and regain public confidence through transparency and regular engagement, and for the FFC to reach compromise on major issues to bridge divisions based on politics and identity, and to maintain civilian unity to ensure the military hands over power in the second half of the transition period.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Sudan, SPLM-N Agar strike humanitarian and ceasefire agreement

18/12/2019: Sudan Tribune - Sudan, SPLM-N Agar strike humanitarian and ceasefire agreement

Sudan Tribune reports that the Sudanese transitional government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (Malik Agar faction) signed a framework agreement to cease hostilities and deliver humanitarian aid to the war-affected areas in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan states (the Two Areas).

The agreement was signed by Himedti, Malik Agar and the South Sudanese mediator Tut Kew Gatluak.

The agreement says that humanitarian action is carried out in the Two Areas under international law, principles of humanitarian action, impartiality, neutrality and independence.

Before the launch of the humanitarian operation, a joint committee will be formed to assess humanitarian needs, open crossing

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Security Arrangements in Sudan – Achilles heels of peace and democratic transformation

18/12/2019: Radio Dabanga - Security Arrangements in Sudan – Achilles heels of peace and democratic transformation, Dr Elwathig Kameir

In an analysis of challenges facing the transitional government in securing a peace agreement, Sudanese political expert Dr Elwathig Kameir, argues that a peace agreement is contingent upon rebel groups transforming into civilian political organisations prepared for participation in the general elections, and security sector reforms that would see rebel groups integrated into a united national army.

Among the obstacles to a peace agreement, Kameir notes, the divergence of positions on the inclusiveness of negotiating agenda, with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) calling for the inclusion of national constitutional issues in the agenda, whereas the government insists on restricting negotiations to the Two Areas (South Kordofan/Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile states).

Secondly, Kameir notes that the SPLM prioritises a political agreement, including autonomy for the Two Areas, whereas the transitional government’s refusal to negotiate political issues risks repeating previous mistakes that have hampered Sudanese peace negotiations.