SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Africa Confidential - History won't repeat itself

19/1/2023: Africa Confidential - History won't repeat itself

Africa Confidential (AC) report that the commander-in-chief of Sudan’s army, Abdulfattah al-Burhan, is at “loggerheads with the Islamists he helped…regain their jobs in the state apparatus after the 2021 [coup],” although his public anti-Islamist stance aims to secure the confidence of Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia alongside “[winning] points with western governments who control most of the aid taps.”

Al-Burhan’s support for the ex-ruling National Congress Party (NCP) after the coup “led to the risk of him being overthrown by party militants in league with other Islamist factions”.

With the Sudanese army remaining a “stronghold” for Islamist militants after the coup, AC suggest that the Islamists view al-Burhan as “betraying the Islamist project”. To reassert his control, AC raise the prospect of al-Burhan arresting ex-NCP minister Ali Karti.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga – Death toll of West Darfur massacre now at least 129

19/1/2021: Radio Dabanga – Death toll of West Darfur massacre now at least 129

 Radio Dabanga report that the massacre in al-Geneina has now left at least 129 people dead and 198 injured. The West Darfur Doctors Committee said in a statement that, despite peace slowly returning to the town, the violence has expanded into the nearby Murnei and Goker areas where new bodies were already found, with the casualty toll expected to rise.

.A member of the Masalit tribe, Saad Abdelrahman, expressed his surprise about the “complete absence of the army during the attacks.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - New UN report dismisses presence of Sudanese militiamen in Libya

19/1/2020: Sudan Tribune - New UN report dismisses presence of Sudanese militiamen in Libya  

Sudan Tribune reports that a UN panel of experts on Darfur contradicted reports by a UN panel of experts on Libya that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are fighting alongside General Khalifa Haftar in his war against the UN-recognized government.

On 9 December 2019, UN experts on Libya said that 1,000 RSF troops were deployed to Libya on 25 July 2019. But the UN panel on Darfur stressed the lack of credible evidence for these claims, as "many Arabs from Darfur and Chad who fight in Libya as individual mercenaries" hail from the same tribes as the majority of RSF fighters.

The Sudanese army and the RSF has also denied claims that they are in Libya.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Washington Post - What happened in Sudan?

19/1/2020: Washington Post - What happened in Sudan?, by Jean-Baptiste Gallopin

Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, sociologist and researcher, analyses the consequences of the NISS mutiny on January 14.

Gallopin raises the prospect of Himedti and Abdelfattah al-Burhan emerging stronger from the “episode,” as they can portray the RSF and army respectively as “protectors of the revolution and scoring points against rivals such as [former NISS chief Salah] Gosh.”

Highlighting the fragility of Sudan’s military alliances and obstacles for security sector reforms, Gallopin writes that the mishandling of NISS severance packages “inspires little confidence that the authorities have the means and expertise to prevent other, potentially more serious, rebellions.”

Gallopin then raises the prospect of infighting between Himedti’s RSF and al-Burhan’s army should they compete for the General Intelligence’s Service’s (GIS) men and business interests, before concluding that the security sector reforms should be overseen by civilians to prevent such outcomes, although this would be unlikely “without an initiative from Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.”