SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Hemeti’s speech sparks speculations about the SAF and RSF split in Sudan

21/2/2023: Radio Dabanga - Hemeti’s speech sparks speculations about the SAF and RSF split in Sudan

Radio Dabanga report that analysts are speculating about a rift between Sudan’s army led by Abdulfattah al-Burhan, the chair of Sudan’s ruling Sovereign Council, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia led by his deputy Himedti.

Mohamed Abdelaziz, journalist and political analyst, said Himedti “discovered that the [October 2021 coup] was only an attempt to restore [the remnants of al-Bashir’s regime] to power again,” with his statements revealing schisms with the army “that seriously widened” after the remnants returned to power.

Abdelaziz added that “al-Burhan seeks to exploit supporters of the former regime to overthrow Himedti or tame him in order to monopolise power,” before raising the prospect of a clash between the army and RSF “which could develop into an all-out civil war that may last for years and will eventually lead to the division of Sudan”.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: AP - Sudan announces managed currency float to revive economy

21/2/2021: AP - Sudan announces managed currency float to revive economy, by Samy Magdy

 AP report that Sudan announced a managed flotation of its currency to meet a major demand by international financial institutions to help transitional authorities overhaul the battered economy.

 The sharp devaluation could provoke a popular backlash as the price of goods and services rise in response to the fall of the pound’s value and possible hike in the price of fuel and other essential goods.

 The US Embassy in Khartoum said the move paves the way for debt relief and significantly increases the impact of international assistance. “This decision will also help Sudanese companies and attract international investment as both local and foreign companies will no longer encounter difficulties doing business in Sudan because of the dual exchange rate,” it said.

Volker Perthes, the UN envoy for Sudan, also hailed the floatation, saying, “It demonstrates that the transitional authorities can reach consensus, take difficult decisions and carry them through.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Bloomberg - Sudan Central Bank Devalues the Currency to Revive Economy

21/2/2021: Bloomberg - Sudan Central Bank Devalues the Currency to Revive Economy, by Tarek el-Tablawy and Mohammed Alamin

 Bloomberg reports that Sudan’s central bank steeply devalued the country’s currency, as part of a broader effort to win debt relief and revive the struggling economy.

 The move was demanded by international lenders but threatens to pile on more hardship in Sudan, where the inflation rate topped 300% in January. 

 The change is critical to helping Sudan win some debt relief, Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim told reporters, while acknowledging that it will lead to a “soaring of prices.” He said “precautions” would be taken to help cushion the impact, but offered no details.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - Sudan devalues currency to meet key condition for debt relief

21/2/2021: Reuters - Sudan devalues currency to meet key condition for debt relief, by Khalid Abdelaziz

 Reuters reports that Sudan’s central bank devalued the currency, announcing a new regime to “unify” official and black-market exchange rates.  The change is a key reform demanded by foreign donors and the IMF, but was delayed for months amid shortages of basic goods and rapid inflation.

Steps were taken to streamline imports of strategic commodities and limit imports of non-essential goods ahead of the devaluation, officials said. Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim said Sudan’s customs exchange rate was not included in the devaluation and its reform was under study. 

As well as paving the way for debt relief, the devaluation would help stabilise the currency, reduce smuggling and speculation, and attract remittances from Sudanese working overseas, the central bank said. Some economists said they expected the impact of devaluation on inflation to be limited because almost all transactions were already being carried out at the black market rate.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Sudan central bank floats pound

21/2/2021: Sudan Tribune - Sudan central bank floats pound

 Sudan Tribune reports that Sudan’s central bank floated the local currency saying its price will be fixed by the exchange rate in the local forex market. The dollar was selling for about 380 Sudanese pounds in cash transactions, as the official rate was at 55 to the dollar.

"Banks are required to announce currency exchange rates based on supply and demand in the market," said the Bank of Sudan. The central bank added that the purpose of the devaluation is to stabilise the exchange rate and to transfer the hard currency from the parallel market to the formal market.

The devaluation would allow the banks to attract foreign investors and remittances of Sudanese abroad. The measure will also pave the way to normalisation with regional and international financial institutions as well as making it easy to ensure grant flows and loans from these bodies.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - Donors to disburse funds for Sudan welfare programme from Monday -cbank governor

21/2/2021: Reuters - Donors to disburse funds for Sudan welfare programme from Monday -cbank governor

 Reuters report that Sudan’s central bank governor said donor funds for a scheme that aims to pay $5 monthly allowances to most of the population would be disbursed to the finance ministry. The disbursal of $400 million for the initial phase of the programme had been delayed due to concerns that the real value of the allowances would have been greatly diminished under the unreformed rate.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Deutsche Welle - Sudan strives to break 30 years of isolation

21/2/2020: Deutsche Welle - Sudan strives to break 30 years of isolation, by Tom Allison

 Tom Allison argues that the Sudanese transitional government’s attempts to end its international isolation has been met with pushback from sections of Sudanese society and international ambiguity that “threatens to undermine [Sudan’s] transition to democracy.”

 Sudan analyst Jonas Horner from the International Crisis Group states that the agreement to submit Omar al-Bashir to the International Criminal Court (ICC) is re-enforcing splits between the military and Islamists.

 However, Sara Abdelgalil, a spokesperson for the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) suggested that the possibility of an ICC court set up in Sudan could also help restore a judicial system “wrecked by [al-Bashir’s] regime.”

 Adelgalil said the decision to normalise ties with Israel should be left to an elected government and was antithetical to the revolution given that “some people view the political regime in Israel as a terrorist regime.”

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Just Security - Sudan Takes Two Big Steps toward Normalizing Relations: USS Cole and Bashir

21/2/2020: Just Security - Sudan Takes Two Big Steps toward Normalizing Relations: USS Cole and Bashir, by John Hursh

 John Hursh, the Editor-in-Chief of International Law Studies at the US Naval War College, argues that Sudan’s removal from the US State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) list will transform its US relations from subservience into reciprocity.

 Hursh notes that while successive Sudanese governments have denied responsibility for the al-Qaeda attack on the USS Cole in Yemen, the current government has agreed to pay compensation “only to satisfy the U.S. condition for its removal from the SST list.”

 Nonetheless, Hursh argues that the US President Donald Trump administration’s lack of urgency in removing Sudan from the SST list threatens to stall Sudanese progress towards peace and democracy.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Sudan Tribune – Why a national court may be a good option for Sudan’s al-Bashir

21/2/2020: Sudan Tribune – Why a national court may be a good option for Sudan’s al-Bashir, by Iffat Rahman

 Iffat Rahman, a Representative of the African Bar Association, calls for Omar al-Bashir’s trial for alleged war crimes in Darfur to be conducted in a hybrid or an independent court in Sudan, with both options requiring international assistance.

 Arguing that a Sudanese legal system that can enforce international criminal law will be pivotal for Sudan’s success and will meet Sudanese people’s desire for justice, Rahman suggests that Sudan seek US and UK assistance in developing and funding a national court. On a practical level, Rahman adds that domestic trials would allow easy access to evidence and victims.

 Rahman also calls for the African Union, major regional and economic powers to help Sudan establish a victims trust fund and a commission of inquiry for Sudan, concluding that Sudan should lead the way in seeking justice while strengthening its legal system.