SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Reuters - Explainer: How regional power play complicates Sudan's political transition

31/1/2023: Reuters - Explainer: How regional power play complicates Sudan's political transition, by Khalid Abdelaziz

Reuters explain the interests of regional powers in Sudan.

While the Quad - US, UK, UAE and Saudi Arabia - drove international efforts for a political solution in Sudan, Egypt pursued a parallel track with political factions close to Sudan's military.

Although Islamists linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s arch foe, deeply permeated Sudan’s military, Egypt reportedly view Islamists as “less of a risk” than a democratic breakthrough on its doorstep.

By contrast, the UAE view Islamists “which it thinks retains a strong influence in Sudan's army” as an existential threat to the entire region and thus puts its trust in Himedti, head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Saudi Arabia also “wants Sudan to wipe out Islamist influence”.

The US “wants a stable and secure Sudan” and is also trying to counter Russia's influence in Sudan and the wider region, with Moscow having cultivated ties with Himedti.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: International Crisis Group - Sudan: Rebooting an Endangered Transition

31/1/2023: International Crisis Group - Sudan: Rebooting an Endangered Transition

ANALYSIS

International Crisis Group (ICG) argue that while the framework agreement signed by Sudan’s military and the Forces of Freedom and Change coalition “looks very promising on paper” its implementation must “overcome significant challenges.”

ICG note that the deal has yet to gain wider buy-in from most resistance committees - neighbourhood groups that formed the core of the protests against ex-president Omar al-Bashir’s regime but that have since sparred with the FFC), alongside other civic groups and community leaders, some former armed group leaders and many political parties.

Thus, ICG warn that unless the FFC leaders make genuine efforts to forge a broader coalition with civilian groups that are critical of the framework agreement, their exclusion will affect the credibility of any final agreement and the legitimacy of the civilian government that will take power.

Without broader support, Sudan’s next government risks falling again, possibly to another coup, ICG add.

SOLUTIONS

The International Crisis Group (ICG) identify ways the EU can support the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) as it seeks to form a civilian government following the framework agreement.

With the credibility of the civilian government hinging on the extent of its acceptability to a wide range of political actors, ICG suggests that the FFC is encouraged to expand groups included in its ongoing negotiations with the military, and appeal to their interests by including their agenda items.

To prevent another military coup and the potential comeback of the former ruling Islamist National Congress Party, ICG call for the EU to financially support the civilian government so that it does not lose popular support should it fail to adequately improve the livelihoods of ordinary citizens and undermine public trust in the political transition.

ICG also propose that humanitarian relief focuses on health, food and education to provide stability.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Responsible Statecraft – Buying time: Burhan’s strategy in Sudan

31/1/2022: Responsible Statecraft – Buying time: Burhan’s strategy in Sudan, by Jihad Mashamoun

Political analyst Jihad Mashamoun argues that Sudan’s military ruler Abdulfattah al-Burhan’s apparent openness to inclusive dialogue with the Sudanese civilian opposition is an “intricate” game to ensure the success of his military coup.

To compensate for the loss of international legitimacy caused by the resignation of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, Mashamoun suggests that al-Burhan aims to satisfy western warnings against unilateral military appointments of a civilian government by recruiting key former officials of the National Congress Party of deposed dictator Omar al-Bashir and co-opting ambitious individuals “perhaps even from the Forces of Freedom and Change” (FFC).

Mashamoun adds that FFC divides play into the military’s interest in showing the international community that the FFC is not a representative of the Sudanese people, which may encourage Western policy-makers to consider a renewed civil-military partnership as the most realistic path for any transition.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Guardian - Sudan accused of failing men who say they were duped into working in Libya

31/1/2020: Guardian - Sudan accused of failing men who say they were duped into working in Libya , by Kaamil Ahmed

In a feature piece, the Guardian reports on accusations that the Sudanese government is failing young men who claim they were tricked into guarding Libyan oil facilities by a security firm from the UAE.

One of the recruits, Hassan Saifuddin, said when he travelled to the UAE to take up a job as a security guard, the group was taken to a camp and given three months of military training, before being put on a military plane to Libya.

He added that the company refused to return them home, and that they were force to live in harsh conditions – without windows and doors - in abandoned facilities.

Although information minister Faisal Mohamed Salih said an “operations room” was set up to help the men examine their contracts, Mekki Ali Mahmoud, general secretary of the Sudanese Family Organisation, said the minister only made a statement due to increasing public pressure.