Sudan Security Report: Is Sudan On The Brink of Civil War

Youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXwVITmLurA&feature=youtu.be

On January 14th 2020, clashes erupted in Khartoum, as the Rapid Support Forces militia (RSF) repelled a mutiny staged by agents linked to the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS).

This security report explores two key questions:

Is Sudan on the brink of a civil war?

What outcome will these events have on #SudanUprising and democratic development?

After exploring: 1) the dynamics of Sudan’s divided security apparatus, 2) civil war fears heightened by NISS-RSF tensions, we 3) profile former NISS leader Salah Gosh, who is accused of orchestrating the mutiny, before 4) re-capping the events which triggered the NISS armed revolt.

Finally, we forecast potential consequences for Sudanese democratic development including: Democratic development being derailed by security considerations, resulting in either a) more power for the RSF or b) the re-emergence of Salah Gosh.

Alternatively, the events may lead to the accelerated security sector reforms demanded by pro-democracy activists.