SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Al-Monitor - Sudan's transition deal seen as significant, but doubts remain

5/12/2022: Al-Monitor - Sudan's transition deal seen as significant, but doubts remain, by Adam Lucente

Al-Monitor report that Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said he is skeptical that Sudan’s framework agreement “is anything more than a tactical maneuver by the military to buy more time and space” as it “essentially returns Sudan to the position it was in originally in 2019 after the fall of ex-president Omar al-Bashir.”

Hudson further questioned whether any future elections in Sudan, if they occur, will be free and fair or “lead to the fundamental transformation of the Sudanese state” adding that “the leopard has not changed its spots and there is nothing in evidence to suggest that it intends to going forward.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Khartoum resistance committees protest as Darfuri society signs Sudanese Framework Agreement

5/12/2022: Radio Dabanga - Khartoum resistance committees protest as Darfuri society signs Sudanese Framework Agreement

Amid protests in Khartoum against the framework agreement, Radio Dabanga report on positive perceptions in the peripheries. 

The Darfuri Civil Society Platform signed the framework agreement, describing it as “a new and excellent opportunity to address and discuss Sudanese problems that have existed for decades, pave the way for future generations, and end the sharp polarisation.”

In addition, Awatef Abdelrahman, head of the Sudanese Displaced Women Network, called on “all forces to sign the framework agreement in order to implement the Juba Peace Agreement, which will allow the displaced to return home.”

Nonetheless, the director of Justice Africa Sudan, Hafiz Mohammed, said settlement “is not optimal,” noting that “the problem with Sudan is not agreements, it is honouring those agreements”. He explained that Sudan has “civilian institutions which are not able to enforce and implement the constitutions and deals,” instead choosing to “fold them on the junta.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Bloomberg - Sudan Power-Sharing Deal Promises to Reverse Coup, Boost Economy

5/12/2022: Bloomberg - Sudan Power-Sharing Deal Promises to Reverse Coup, Boost Economy, by Mohammed Alamin and Simon Marks

Bloomberg report that Sudan’s military leadership and political activists agreed a new framework for power-sharing aimed at ending the crisis caused by the 2021 military coup, potentially curbing the military’s near-total control of resource-rich Sudan.

If successfully implemented and civilian-led government returns, Bloomberg note, the deal could restore billions of dollars of Western financial help, speed large-scale investment from Gulf Arab nations including in ports and agriculture, alongside reviving plans for Sudan to receive debt relief under an International Monetary Fund initiative.

Bloomberg add that the agreement followed weeks of US-brokered negotiations that saw the army and the Rapid Support Forces militia hold direct talks with members of the Forces for Freedom and Change, a coalition of activists and political groups.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: AFP - Sudan's military, civilian factions sign framework deal aimed at ending crisis

5/12/2022: AFP - Sudan's military, civilian factions sign framework deal aimed at ending crisis

AFP report that Sudan's military and leading civilian entity, the Forces of Freedom and Change Central Council (FFC-CC), signed a preliminary deal aimed at ending the political crisis that followed the 25 October 2021 military coup.

However, AFP note that observers question whether the military would be willing to give up economic interests and wider powers that it views as its privileged domain.

Phase one of the deal "is a very low level commitment on [military leader] al-Burhan's part... allowing him to survive" politically, said Kholood Khair, founder of the Confluence Advisory think-tank. But the signatories will likely face "a real political crisis as they start talking in earnest about security sector reforms, transitional justice (and) financial accountability," she added.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: AP - Sudan’s generals, pro-democracy group ink deal to end crisis

5/12/2022: AP - Sudan’s generals, pro-democracy group ink deal to end crisis, by Ashraf Idris and Jack Jeffrey

AP report that Sudan’s military coup leaders and the main pro-democracy group (the Forces of Freedom and Change Central Council) signed a deal to establish a civilian-led transitional government.

However, AP note that the deal “appears to leave many thorny issues unresolved” and lacks the support of key political forces, including the grassroots pro-democracy Resistance Committees.

AP add that while the deal envisions Sudan’s military stepping back from politics by forming part of a new ”security and defense council” under the appointed prime minister, “it does not address how to reform the armed forces, saying only they should be unified and controls should be imposed on military-owned companies”.

Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory think-tank, said: “realistically none of these complex processes can be dealt with within a transitional time frame of two years”.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Sudanese stakeholders sign Political Framework Agreement

5/12/2022: Sudan Tribune - Sudanese stakeholders sign Political Framework Agreement

Sudan Tribune outlined the Framework Agreement signed by the military and the Forces of Freedom and Change, with a two-year transition starting following the appointment of a prime minister chosen by revolutionary forces.

The agreement affirms the establishment of a single professional army, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia integrated into it, with an Interior Minister controlling all security forces.  The agreement provides that the military would only be allowed to conduct commercial business in its industry, and that the commander-in-chief of the army would be the civilian head of state, who also picks the head of the General Intelligence Service.

The Justice and Equality Movement (SLM) and Sudan Liberation Movement- Minnawi (SLM-MM) rejected to sign the agreement.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Demonstrations planned in Khartoum as FFC signs deal with Sudan’s military junta

5/12/2022: Radio Dabanga - Demonstrations planned in Khartoum as FFC signs deal with Sudan’s military junta

Radio Dabanga report on opposition to the Framework Agreement signed by the military and Forces of Freedom and Change Central Council (FFC-CC).

Resistance committees announced protests in line with their slogan: “no negotiation, no partnership, no legitimacy”.

Calling on its members to join the marches, the Communist Party of Sudan said the agreement “is a domestic and foreign conspiracy to block the path of the revolution”.

The Darfur Bar Association (DBA) also rejects the framework agreement, labelling it “a deviation from the path of restoring the constitutional life of the country, an entry point for power-sharing between its signatories, and the legalisation of impunity of the security apparatus of the ousted regime [of Omar Al Bashir].”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Non-signatories say framework agreement will not bring stability, might lead to separation

5/12/2022: Sudan Tribune - Non-signatories say framework agreement will not bring stability, might lead to separation

Sudan Tribune report that leaders of the pro-coup National Consensus Forces - Minni Minnawi leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement and Gibril Ibrahim of the Justice and Equality Movement – denounced the framework agreement “because it ends partnership with the military and called to review the Juba peace agreement”.

Minnawi said the agreement would split Sudan up.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - Sudan generals and parties sign outline deal, protesters cry foul

5/12/2022: Reuters - Sudan generals and parties sign outline deal, protesters cry foul, by Khalid Abdelaziz and Nafisa Eltahir

Reuters report that the military and Sudanese political parties belonging to the Forces of Freedom and Change Central Council (FFC-CC) signed a framework deal that they said would pave the way for two-year civilian-led transition towards elections.

Under the framework deal, the military agreed it would only be represented on a security and defence council headed by a prime minister. The outline pact set no date for a final agreement or the appointment of the prime minister, and left sensitive issues including transitional justice and security sector reform for further talks.

"The goals of the agreement are establishing a fully civilian authority, creating a free climate for politics, and reaching a final agreement with the widest political participation," Al-Wathiq al-Barir, an FFC-CC spokesman.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Sudan Professionals Association criticise El Burhan council proposal

5/12/2020: Radio Dabanga - Sudan Professionals Association criticise El Burhan council proposal

 Radio Dabanga report that the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) strongly criticised the decision of Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan, Chair of the Sovereign Council, to establish a Transitional Partners Council (TPC).

 The SPA said the TPC “completely disregards” the formation of the commissions stipulated in the August 2019 Constitutional Document or Juba Peace Agreement, which “opens the door to the overlapping of the powers of this council and other institutions of the transitional authority… which could lead to conflict of power”.

 The SPA added that the TPC “has been imposed by a few dominating the FFC alliance and tampering with the goals of the revolution, to serve narrow personal and partisan interests by identifying with the military“.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Financial Times – How Sudan’s women brought down a president

5/12/2019: Financial Times – How Sudan’s women brought down a president, by Siona Jenkins

In a feature piece, Financial Times news editor Siona Jenkins spoke to Sudanese woman activists on the role of women in the Sudanese uprising.

Protester Muzan Alneel attributed the refusal of women in backing down in the face of police and militia violence to women being accustomed to being locked up and beaten by their families, and thereby inured to threats.

Journalist Naba Mohiedeen told FT that al-Bashir attempted to appease women at the start of the protests by offering to suspend to the public order law, but to no avail.

Both Alneel and Mohiedeen argue that progress still needs to be made on women’s rights, and they fear that al-Bashir’s regime is regrouping.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Economist – Jammed streets highlight the challenges of Sudan’s transition

5/12/2019: Economist – Jammed streets highlight the challenges of Sudan’s transition

In a feature piece, the Economist explore issues in Sudan’s transport sector, which for some citizens, are a reflection of legacy of corruption and mismanagement of Omar al-Bashir’s regime.

According to 18-year-old student Souad al-Sawy, the regular traffic jams in Sudan are the work of the “deep-state,” with minibus owners blaming the abandonment of vehicles in roadways on the former ruling National Congress Party (NCP), which owned nearly 40,000 vehicles.

Journalist Yasir Alkordi alleged that public transport has vanished because NCP members have paid bus drivers to shirk work, with the Economist noting that the Khartoum State Transportation Company is “stuffed” with NCP loyalists.

However, the Economist attribute the transport crisis to “mundane economics,” citing state-regulated fares that are “too low” to pay for maintenance.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – US restores diplomatic relations with Sudan, plans to exchange ambassadors

5/12/2019: Multiple sources – US restores diplomatic relations with Sudan, plans to exchange ambassadors

The United States plans to boost diplomatic relations with Sudan by exchanging ambassadors for the first time in 23 years, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement. 

The US State Department issued a statement saying that the Secretary of State for Political Affairs, David Hale expressed unwavering US support for Sudan’s democratic transition, during a meeting with Prime Minister Hamdok which also discussed “cooperative efforts that can accelerate progress in bringing definitive peace between the government and Sudan’s armed opposition groups.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - FFC’s El Sheikh: ‘Unresolved differences between parties challenge to Sudan peace’

5/12/2019: Radio Dabanga - FFC’s El Sheikh: ‘Unresolved differences between parties challenge to Sudan peace’

Radio Dabanga reports that Ibrahim El Sheikh, member of the Peace Committee for the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), said that one of the biggest challenges facing Sudan’s peace negotiations are the differences among the components of the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF).

Calling for a negotiating platform that is neutral and “without hidden agendas,” El Sheikh attribute the SRF disagreements to concerning the negotiation platform and the funding for the implementation of a peace agreement. He added that previous agreements failed as “they were bilateral, based on quotas, and did not address the roots of the crisis in Sudan, of unequal development, citing the “unfair distribution of power and wealth, and failing management of the diversity in the country”.

He also highlighted the rivalries between the countries acting as negotiation platforms – such as the UAE and Egypt’s rivalry with Qatar – as they led to pressure on negotiating parties.