SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments – “This Is Not a Coup”: Inside Sudan’s Mediation

1/11/2021: African Arguments – “This Is Not a Coup”: Inside Sudan’s Mediation, by an anonymous author

 

African Arguments’ anonymous author highlights the mediation points to solve Sudan’s political crisis and their challenges.

Key mediation points:

  1. Release of political detainees.

  2. Military junta fears implication for crimes in Darfur through prosecution by the International Criminal Court.

  3. Review of Tamkeen Committee that “strikes at the core of the military’s patronage network”.

  4. Transfer of power to civilians as stipulated in the Constitution.

Challenges include:

  1. Protesters and most civilian parties are less likely to accept a military led-government.

  2. Tensions between senior army commanders and Rapid Support Forces commander Himedti, after his force has grown and he has brought politicians from the peripheries into power, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE sceptical of his leadership given the 3 June massacre investigation.

  3. Trust in FFC parties is low, making Hamdok a leading negotiator, even though he “governs by compromise, which may disappoint protestors.”

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Reuters - Analysis-Sudan's Military Leaders Could Face Isolation After Coup

1/11/2021: Reuters - Analysis-Sudan's Military Leaders Could Face Isolation After Coup, by Aidan Lewis

Reuters suggest that the military’s coup may backfire, with a diplomat saying that army chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan “does not have a clean path to form a government in the way that he wanted”.

 

With the military drawing on loyalists from the regime of former leader Omar al-Bashir, the release and re-arrest of the former head of the National Congress Party, Ibrahim Ghandour, suggests confusion over this strategy.

 

Suliman Baldo of the Sentry suggests the government may run Sudan on cash flows from gold sales and try create "alternative facts" through the state media and social media campaigns, although the international community may balk at the regional consequences of al-Burhan aggressively targeting protesters.

 

Sudan expert Alex de Waal said al-Burhan and his backers lack “the capacity or the cohesion among themselves to mount an intensive crackdown,” with the UAE and Saudi Arabia not having pockets deep enough to “bail Sudan”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Washington Post – Sudan’s people have a taste of democracy and free expression. They want more

1/11/2021: Washington Post – Sudan’s people have a taste of democracy and free expression. They want more, by Jason Rezaian

 

Jason Rezaian examines the state of freedom of expression in Sudan following the military coup.

 

“In the past two years, the greater degree of press freedom has allowed Sudanese to discuss and debate their problems and challenges in a deeper and more frank way, beyond slogans and whitewashing,” Isma’il Kushkush told said. He fears there will be setbacks.

 

Rezaian added that the internet shutdown was “most alarming,” with Sherif Mansour, Middle East and North Africa coordinator at the Committee to Protect Journalists, saying “this is what we fear the most. Sudan was one of the last remaining open media spaces in the region…To see this backlash is an ominous sign for Sudan and the region”.

 

Mansour added that: “as we’ve seen before, these censorship tactics are the hallmark of a government that wants to conceal its action on the ground, including massive human rights violations”.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: London Review of Books – On the Coup in Sudan

1/11/2021: London Review of Books – On the Coup in Sudan, by Jean-Baptiste Gallopin

Following the military coup, analyst Jean-Baptiste Gallopin argues that, unlike in 2019, “the army is emboldened,” noting that “security forces knock on doors at night, arresting leaders and organisers who have not already gone into hiding,” by contrast two years ago, whereby, after four months of street protests, “the generals thought better of detaining revolutionary leaders”. 

Thus, Gallopin argues that the transition’ period has taught generals and militias alike that popular demands to bring them to account will be irresistible if civilians are allowed to set the political agenda.

In addition, Gallopin revealed that a former minister, close to the military, suggested that army chief Abdulfattah al-Burhan staged the coup “because his position in the military and security apparatus was under threat from hardliners who thought the time was ripe: if he held back, he would have been toppled by his fellow officers.”

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Reuters - Tribal group lifts blockade of Sudan's main port one week after coup

1/11/2021: Reuters - Tribal group lifts blockade of Sudan's main port one week after coup

 

Reuters report that the High Beja Council said it would lift the Port Sudan blockade for a month, after the military took power in a coup.

 

Opponents of the coup accused the army of engineering the blockade of Port Sudan to put pressure on civilian leaders and ultimately justify plans to end civilian rule.

 

The Port Sudan blockade shut down Red Sea terminals and the main road linking to Khartoum, resulting in wheat and fuel shortages and the re-routing of shipments through Egypt.

 

The High Beja Council called for the replacement of the civilian-led government with technocrats, but said the blockade would be re-instated in one month until their demands are met.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Death toll rises, hundreds wounded in Sudan anti-coup demos

1/11/2021: Radio Dabanga - Death toll rises, hundreds wounded in Sudan anti-coup demos

Radio Dabanga report that the number of victims of the demonstrations against the military coup since October 25 has risen to at least 12 dead and hundreds wounded, according to the Sudan Doctors Central Committee.

The ongoing internet and telecommunications blockade in Sudan is complicating communications between reliable sources. Other opposition sources estimate the actual 'body count' to be much higher, and exact numbers remain difficult to assess or confirm.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Internet blackout continues, mobile phone service restored in Sudan

1/11/2021: Radio Dabanga - Internet blackout continues, mobile phone service restored in Sudan

Radio Dabanga report that the internet blackout imposed in Sudan after the military coup continues, with little internet traffic possible.

 

Telecommunications services began to be restored after a break that lasted for more than a day during to the October 30 Marches of Millions. Sources told Radio Dabanga that phone calls continued to be difficult.

 

The US Embassy in Khartoum confirmed that the Salanco satellite internet network for Internet and Surveillance is still working, while the Maxnet wireless broadband service provider has been cut.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: AFP - Sudan's ousted PM says solution hinges on return of govt: ministry

1/11/2021: AFP - Sudan's ousted PM says solution hinges on return of govt: ministry

 

AFP report that Sudan's ousted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said the reinstatement of his government, dissolved in a military coup, could pave the way to a solution in the country, the information ministry said.

 

Meanwhile, Kamal al-Gizouli, the lead defence lawyer for detained civilian leaders said their whereabouts are unknown and that they are in a "dangerous legal situation". Gizouli expressed concern about the well-being of the detainees and called on those holding them to reveal their location. "These detainees are in the most dangerous legal situation" since nothing was known about their case nor who was heading the investigation, he added.

 

Jonas Horner of the International Crisis Group think tank said Hamdok’s “political cache has been boosted…and he is strengthened from what was a relatively weak position previously,” citing Hamdok's "principled stance" prior to the coup in refusing to dissolve his government.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Sudan to list media outlets owned by former govt officials

1/11/19: Radio Dabanga - Sudan to list media outlets owned by former govt officials

 Radio Dabanga reports that Sudan’s Minister of Information and Culture Faisal Mohammed Salih said that measures have been taken to list media institutions owned by former state officials, with his ministry filtering media outlets set by officials of the former National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS).

 Salih also pointed to similar measures taken against individually-owned media institutions, yet financed by the former ruling National Congress Party and the Islamic Movement. He said the state may take over the outlets or liquidate them, with the proceeds going to the state treasury.

 He added “we welcome local media and will facilitate their work as much as possible,: announcing that the political security constraints on media during Omar al-Bashir’s leadership have vanished.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Reactions to UNAMID extended Darfur mandate

1/11/19: Multiple sources – Reactions to UNAMID extended Darfur mandate

 Sudan’s ambassador the UN Omer Siddig reacted positive to the UN Security Council’s decision to extend the UN-African Union (UNAMID) peacekeeping mission in Darfur, as US and UK diplomats said they expect further progression.

 Omer Siddig thanked the UN Security Council for extending the mandate, saying that he hopes it “will continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with the civilian governance of Sudan as it works to overcome the challenges ahead.”

 Jonathan Guy Allen, the UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN said: "we have a partner in the Government of Sudan, [and we look] forward to continued dialogue with the country on the drawdown of UNAMID.”

 Michael Barkin, senior policy advisor to the US’ Mission to the UN said they expect that this additional year be UNAMID’s final such extension, leading to a follow-on UNAMID mandate which meets Sudan’s development needs.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - West Darfuris torch offices of Intelligence Service

1/11/19: Radio Dabanga - West Darfuris torch offices of Intelligence Service

 Radio Dabanga reports that angry protesters burned to the ground buildings of the West Darfur General Intelligence Service (GIS), after a young man was allegedly tortured by Rapid Support Forces militants.

 GIS is the new name of Sudan’s infamous National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS).

According to Radio Dabanga’s sources, a dispute broke out after residents of Asonga in Darfur disputed with the RSF following abuses. The RSF then took a young man to the GIS offices in West Darfur and tortured him.

 The next morning, GIS offices were set on fire, until a security force arrived and evacuated the building. GIS members shot back, wounding three.

SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Lawfare - A Constitutional Moment in Sudan

 1/11/19: Lawfare - A Constitutional Moment in Sudan, by Israa Saber

For Sudan’s transitional constitution to avoid backsliding toward authoritarian rule, Isra Saber, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institute, calls for “real” commitment from the opposition and the military, and for the Forces of Freedom and Change to unify their vision.

 Saber argues that the transitional constitution does not clarify how the interim government will prepare a permanent constitution, which individuals will be involved, whether different social groups will be represented, or when the process will start. 

 Saber also warns that the transitional constitution’s failure to clarify what a post-transition government will look like risks creating a “precarious situation.”

 However, for Saber, “the biggest remaining hole” is that civilians do not have oversight over the military, adding that the military’s ability to name its ministers of defence and the interior and manage its own reforms risks strengthening the deep state, even after Sudan’s democratic transition.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Hamdok to travel to Washington to discuss Sudan’s removal from terror list

1/11/19: Sudan Tribune - Hamdok to travel to Washington to discuss Sudan’s removal from terror list

 Sudan Tribune reports that Sudanese Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok will travel to Washington to discuss Sudan’s rescission from the U.S. list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, according to Sudan’s finance minister Ibrahim Elbadawi.

 After meeting the Friends of Sudan in Washington, Elbawadi further announced that Hamdok will travel to Washington to encourage the US lawmakers to back the efforts of his government to stabilise Sudan via peace and economic reforms.

 Elbadawi re-iterated that Sudan’s removal from the terror list is critical for the rehabilitation of Sudan’s economy through grants and loans from the international financial institutions, and to created conditions for international private investments.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Sudan Tribune - Facebook removes 17 Russian accounts targeting Sudan

1/11/19: Sudan Tribune - Facebook removes 17 Russian accounts targeting Sudan

 Sudan Tribune reports that Facebook said it has removed 17 accounts, 6 Instagram accounts, 18 pages and 3 groups originating in Russia and focusing on Sudan’s internal affairs.

 The move is part of the removal of three Russian networks attempting to interfere in the domestic politics of eight African countries with astroturfing campaigns. The Russian Wagner Group, which is allegedly close to Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) was reportedly involved.

 Facebook said that the people behind the activity “used a combination of authentic accounts of Sudanese nationals, fake and compromised accounts (...) to comment, post and manage Pages posing as news organizations, as well as direct traffic to off-platform sites,” such as Sudanese and Russian official state media.

 Supporters of Omar al-Bashir’s regime have used social media platforms to spread fake news about the transitional government and the Forces of Freedom and Change.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Radio Dabanga - Friends of Sudan agree on financing 2020 budget and debt relief

1/11/19: Radio Dabanga - Friends of Sudan agree on financing 2020 budget and debt relief

 Radio Dabanga’s report on Sudanese Finance Minister Ibrahim Elbadawi’s announcement that an agreement was reached with the Friends of Sudan about debt relief, provided more details on Sudan’s 2020 budget.

 Elbadawi explained that the budget will be based on the UN Sustainable Development Goals, “with a focus on education, health, and social services.” The agreement also ensures that the budget will be based on macroeconomic stabilisation, reliance on available resources, and strengthening of monetary and exchange rate policies.

 In addition, Sudan will not have to pay any of its huge debts next year, but will engage in negotiations on debt relief with the World Bank and the African Development Bank scheduled to begin March. The negotiations will be based on Sudan’s sustainable development programme.

SUDAN NEWS ALERT: Multiple sources – Finance Minister Ibrahim Elbadawi: IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank agree roadmap to support Sudan

1/11/19: Multiple sources – Finance Minister Ibrahim Elbadawi: IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank agree roadmap to support Sudan

Sudan has agreed a roadmap to “rehabilitate” the country with the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and African Development Bank, according to Finance Minister Ibrahim Elbadawi.

 The plan involved structural reforms, Elbadawi said, but he did not go into further details.

 He added that Sudan’s debt relief programme will start by the end of 2020, and that it will be financed by the “friends of Sudan,” after the finance ministry submitted funding requests for 20 projects to donors that Elbadawi did not identify.