SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments - A Cruel April In The Arab Spring

12/4/19: African Arguments – A Cruel April In The Arab Spring?, by Alex De Waal

Sudan expert Alex De Waal examines how the “short-term power calculations” of the leaders of the April 11 military coup threaten Sudan’s stability and its democratisation.

 De Waal cites the internally divided Sudanese army, NISS’ unwillingness to play a secondary role, and the RSF willingness to use to violence to achieve its goals, to highlight the distrust among the coup leaders. De Waal argues that the new regime’s pre-occupation with infighting and power consolidation apprehends the prospects of democratic transition, as well as increasing the possibility of further repression.  

 De Waal then argues that democratisation will need to be facilitated externally, but concedes that Middle-East rivalries are likely to be played out among the higher ranks of the new regime, further accentuating instability, and that western powers are unlikely to assertively support democracy.