SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: African Arguments - What al-Bashir's removal means for South Sudan's fragile peace

30/4/19: African Arguments – What al-Bashir’s removal means for South Sudan’s fragile peace, by Matthew LeRiche

 Matthew LeRiche, an Assistant Professor in Global Studies at Ohio University, argues that recent developments in Sudan are likely to collapse the South Sudan peace deal.

 LeRiche notes that Sudan needs South Sudan's stability to ensure the secure flow of oil, which would alleviate the economic grievances that caused the protests. However, former president Omar Al Bashir was the "main individual leading [South Sudan's] peace process," meaning that figures in both South Sudan’s government and opposition |could smell an opportunity and act as spoilers."

 LeRiche states that Al Bashir "sometimes [acted] against the interests of his own inner circle," meaning that figures who opposed the 2005 peace deal," may assert themselves following al-Bashir’s exit.

 In addition, Sudan's internal turmoil means that its leaders "may be unable to turn their attention to issues beyond the country’s borders," resulting in further delays to the peace deal and its possible collapse.