SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Wilson Center - Sudan: A Flicker of Hope

5/1/2023: Wilson Center - Sudan: A Flicker of Hope, by Marina Ottaway

Marina Ottaway, a Middle East Fellow at the Wilson Center, identified two sources of “guarded optimism” that a democratic process can emerge from Sudan’s Framework Agreement.

Ottaway noted how Sudan’s previous three experiences with civilian rule (1956-58, 1964-68, 1985-89) saw the government controlled by Umma Party and Democratic Unionist coalitions that were incapable of cooperating or governing effectively. However, she noted that the traditional parties “are no longer controlled by dynasties, and their importance has faded compared to that of newer organisations”. Ottaway further noted the decline of the Islamic Movement, while the “Forces of Freedom and Change represent a broader section of the population; they are younger, more mobilized and better led”.

Ottoway concluded that the second source of optimism is that “most of the military leadership seems to realise that they cannot rule alone,” which is conducive towards compromise.