SUDAN INSIGHT ALERT: Institute for Security Studies - All Eyes On Sudan’s Peace Deal With Armed Groups
Institute for Security Studies (ISS) consultant Peter Fabricius questions whether the Juba peace agreement can provide peace if it exempts the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) faction of Abdelaziz el-Hilu and the Sudan Liberation Movement on Abdelwahid al-Nur (SLM-AW).
Fabricius writes that political parties “fear they would lose substantial public support if they abandoned sharia,” despite el-Hilu’s insistence on secularism.
Meanwhile, al-Nur – who “has significant support in Darfur” believes “Khartoum lacks the political will to meet the demands made by armed groups,” according to ISS researcher Shewit Woldemichael, who argued that the deal will not deliver sustainable peace amid the absence of groups with combatants on the ground.
Even if rebel leaders sign the deal, “conflict will continue, because soldiers reject it or the group splits,” as has happened “many times in Sudan’s history,” she said.